Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Bryansk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
9/17/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 10Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%
×Draw35%
Volga Ulyanovsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.83
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
67%
Dinamo Bryansk or Volga Ulyanovsk
65%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
11%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
5%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
56%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
50%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.78 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
33%
level
35%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
33%

Dinamo Bryansk at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.