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Vítkovice vs Viktoria Otrokovice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vítkovice
Vítkovice
FT
0 – 4
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
2/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vítkovice53%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Otrokovice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vítkovice
2.50
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.81

Vítkovice creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vítkovice
2.80
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.43

allows per match

Vítkovice
1.20
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.21

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw
72%
Vítkovice or Viktoria Otrokovice
81%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
47%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+
33%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals
92%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
71%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
45%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
84%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
54%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)
65%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 2.80 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 2.43 + Vítkovice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vítkovice scores more
53%
level
19%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
28%

Vítkovice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Vítkovice 0–4 Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vítkovice 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2024.