Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vítkovice vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vítkovice
Vítkovice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
D. Dziuba 11'
4/22/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vítkovice39%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vítkovice
1.72
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 67 away

creates per match

Vítkovice
1.45
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.39

allows per match

Vítkovice
2.03
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw
62%
Vítkovice or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
61%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+
20%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals
82%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
51%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
25%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
51%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)
50%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 1.45 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.72

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Vítkovice defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vítkovice scores more
39%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
38%

Vítkovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Dziuba
15'
J. Tamajka← J. Tamajka
33'
O. Pernatskyi
62'
M. Repa← J. Vrbka
62'
R. Chylek← R. Chylek
66'
D. Rapavy← M. Guzik
66'
P. Gerza← P. Gerza
80'
P. Nemec← P. Nemec
85'
R. Smekal← R. Smekal
85'
M. Kalina
88'
P. Chovan
89'
R. Smekal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vítkovice 0–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vítkovice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 22, 2023.

Goals: D. Dziuba (11').

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice in Markvartovice.