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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vítkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vítkovice
Vítkovice
D. Dziuba 90+3' (pen)
D. Rapavy 90+1'
J. Kiska 6'
9/23/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice51%
×Draw22%
Vítkovice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.90
Vítkovice
1.33

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 43% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.64
Vítkovice
0.91

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.75
Vítkovice
2.15

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Vítkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
73%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Vítkovice
78%
Draw or Vítkovice
49%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
29%
Vítkovice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
56%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
29%
Vítkovice 1+ goals
74%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
38%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
65%
Vítkovice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.75 · 64 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.64 + Vítkovice defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vítkovice attack 0.91 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
51%
level
22%
Vítkovice scores more
27%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Kiska
20'
J. Kubena← J. Kubena
23'
D. Dziuba
32'
R. Konecny← R. Konecny
56'
A. Kebisek← A. Kebisek
62'
D. Rapavy← D. Rapavy
62'
M. Seehof← M. Seehof
65'
A. Mooc← A. Mooc
65'
S. Zak← S. Zak
81'
J. Bystrican
85'
J. Hrusovsky← J. Hrusovsky
86'
J. Bystrican
86'
J. Bystrican
87'
J. Raska
90+1'
D. Rapavy
90+3'
D. DziubaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vítkovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vítkovice 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Kiska (6'), D. Rapavy (90+1'), D. Dziuba (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.