Vitesse 6–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jong Ajax

M. Marschalk 90'

V. Zumberi 82'

N. Bannis 69'

N. Zonneveld 54', 45'

A. Tahaui 45'

T. Peters 69'

4/6/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 35GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vitesse57%

×Draw23%

Jong Ajax21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.04

Vitesse

1.87

Jong Ajax

1.04

Vitesse creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.97

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Vitesse

1.97

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Vitesse

1.02

Jong Ajax

1.77

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

79%

Vitesse or Jong Ajax

77%

Draw or Jong Ajax

43%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

33%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

85%

Vitesse 2+ goals

56%

Vitesse 3+ goals

29%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

65%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

28%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

73%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.87

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vitesse scores more

57%

level

23%

Jong Ajax scores more

21%

Vitesse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Tahaui

Vitesse · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

A. el Hani← J. Heerkens

25'

Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz

34'

Ethan Butera

43'

N. Zonneveld← J. Pinto

45'

A. Tahaui

45'

N. Zonneveld

46'

P. Nash← M. van der Lans

54'

N. Zonneveld

58'

Y. Ouallil← R. Schwarz

58'

M. Marschalk← A. Tahaui

63'

M. Verkuijl← A. Ouazane

63'

69'

69'

77'

77'

Y. Ranon← D. Hoogewerf

82'

D. van der Vaart← M. Abdalla

82'

V. Zumberi

90'

M. Marschalk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseJong

Overview

42%Possession58%

22Total Shots9

3.43Expected Goals (xG)1.30

5Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots9

11On Target4

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

16Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

348Total Passes501

262Accurate Passes422

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1