Jong Ajax 1–1 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vitesse

J. Faberski 30'

B. Huisman 80'

4/14/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 34Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong Ajax37%

×Draw24%

Vitesse40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.63

Jong Ajax

1.55

Vitesse

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.18

creates per match

1.48

1.77

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.18

Vitesse

1.48

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.77

Vitesse

1.92

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.53scores more

Vitesse+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

60%

Jong Ajax or Vitesse

76%

Draw or Vitesse

63%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

18%

Vitesse wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

79%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

46%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

20%

Vitesse 1+ goals

80%

Vitesse 2+ goals

48%

Vitesse 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

48%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.18 + Vitesse defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vitesse attack 1.48 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

37%

level

24%

Vitesse scores more

40%

Vitesse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Faberski

Jong Ajax · F

8.5

Match Events

16'

Loek Postma

30'

J. Faberski↳ D. Konadu

46'

J. Johnson← A. Bouwman

46'

S. Steur← Y. Regeer

56'

Precious Ugwu

61'

J. Rijkhoff← D. Kalokoh

64'

Lucas Jetten

66'

J. Brandes← M. Verkuijl

77'

Jim Koller

80'

B. Huisman

81'

A. Zarrouk← R. van der Plaat

89'

Y. Boerhout← D. Konadu

90+1'

A. Tsingaras← J. Koller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongVitesse

Overview

37%Possession63%

23Total Shots16

6Corners11

9Fouls19

Shots

23Total Shots16

6On Target3

8Off Target7

9Blocked6

17Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

259Total Passes439

198Accurate Passes374

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3