Vitesse 2–2 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Jong Ajax

I. Yegoian 62'

A. Visser 31'

J. Rijkhoff 34'

K. Hlynsson 20'

9/21/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 7GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vitesse57%

×Draw23%

Jong Ajax21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.04

Vitesse

1.87

Jong Ajax

1.04

Vitesse creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.97

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Vitesse

1.97

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Vitesse

1.02

Jong Ajax

1.77

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

79%

Vitesse or Jong Ajax

77%

Draw or Jong Ajax

43%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

33%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

85%

Vitesse 2+ goals

56%

Vitesse 3+ goals

29%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

65%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

28%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

73%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.87

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vitesse scores more

57%

level

23%

Jong Ajax scores more

21%

Vitesse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Setford

Jong Ajax · G

8.5

Match Events

20'

K. Hlynsson↳ J. Faberski

31'

A. Visser↳ M. Egbring

34'

J. Rijkhoff↳ K. Hlynsson

46'

I. Yegoian← M. Steffen

46'

L. Jetten← G. Alders

46'

N. Chourak← K. Hlynsson

47'

Jorthy Mokio

62'

I. Yegoian↳ G. de Regt

63'

D. Kalokoh← D. Konadu

63'

A. Bouwman← J. Mokio

67'

Miliano Jonathans

70'

T. Gudelj← A. Visser

70'

M. Kreekels← M. Egbring

76'

Gyan de Regt

78'

S. Vink← J. Faberski

79'

R. van der Plaat← G. de Regt

79'

T. Macheras← A. Büttner

87'

J. Koller← M. Tielemans

90'

Y. Boerhout← J. Rijkhoff

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseJong

Overview

57%Possession43%

29Total Shots8

15Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

29Total Shots8

10On Target3

8Off Target3

11Blocked2

17Inside Box6

12Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

383Total Passes314

309Accurate Passes240

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 2–2 Jong Ajax

Vitesse and Jong Ajax drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on September 21, 2024.

Goals: K. Hlynsson (20'), A. Visser (31'), J. Rijkhoff (34'), I. Yegoian (62').

Vitesse controlled possession (57%) and registered 29 shots to 8.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.

Vitesse vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 2–2 Jong Ajax