Vitesse 3–3 Emmen: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Vitesse

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Emmen

A. Buttner 42', 4' (pen)

N. Bannis 1'

C. Sunder 70'

R. Postema 53'

L. Larsen 18'

4/3/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 34GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vitesse56%

×Draw21%

Emmen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.23

Vitesse

2.04

Emmen

1.23

Vitesse creates 66% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.97

creates per match

1.43

1.02

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Vitesse

1.97

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Vitesse

1.02

Emmen

2.11

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

77%

Vitesse or Emmen

79%

Draw or Emmen

44%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

33%

Emmen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

87%

Vitesse 2+ goals

60%

Vitesse 3+ goals

33%

Emmen 1+ goals

71%

Emmen 2+ goals

35%

Emmen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

71%

Emmen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Emmen attack 1.43 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vitesse scores more

56%

level

21%

Emmen scores more

23%

Vitesse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Bannis

Vitesse · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

N. Bannis↳ D. Hoogewerf

3'

Daniël Beukers

4'

A. ButtnerPenalty

18'

L. Larsen↳ N. Emeran

42'

A. Buttner↳ N. Bannis

46'

P. Sondergaard← D. Beukers

46'

C. Sunder← C. Ostergaard

53'

55'

56'

56'

63'

63'

N. Zonneveld← D. Hoogewerf

66'

A. Hojabrpour← D. Nunumete

70'

C. Sunder↳ F. Quispel

71'

E. Huth← N. Bannis

71'

M. Marschalk← A. Tahaui

73'

R. Kongolo← F. Quispel

82'

Marco Schikora

83'

S. Bonnah← N. Markelo

88'

Lukas Larsen

88'

J. Mesbahi← N. Emeran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseEmmen

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots11

9Corners2

10Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target5

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

326Total Passes361

219Accurate Passes263

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 3–3 Emmen

Vitesse and Emmen drew 3-3 in Eerste Divisie on April 3, 2026.

Goals: N. Bannis (1'), A. Buttner (4' pen, 42'), L. Larsen (18'), R. Postema (53'), C. Sunder (70').

Emmen controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.

Vitesse vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 3–3 Emmen