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Emmen vs Vitesse — Eredivisie 2026

Emmen
Emmen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vitesse
Vitesse
D. Oroz 87' (OG)
J. Assehnoun 43'
C. Arcus 38'
M. Manhoef 33'
2/4/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 20De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Emmen39%
×Draw24%
Vitesse37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.55
Vitesse
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 105 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.41
Vitesse
1.37

allows per match

Emmen
1.64
Vitesse
1.70

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
63%
Emmen or Vitesse
76%
Draw or Vitesse
61%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
19%
Vitesse wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
79%
Emmen 2+ goals
46%
Emmen 3+ goals
20%
Vitesse 1+ goals
78%
Vitesse 2+ goals
44%
Vitesse 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
51%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.70 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.41 + Vitesse defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vitesse attack 1.37 + Emmen defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Emmen scores more
39%
level
24%
Vitesse scores more
37%

Emmen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. KozłowskiVitesseVitesse · M
7.6

Match Events

31'
D. Vos← L. Burnet
33'
M. Manhoef↳ K. Kozłowski
38'
C. Arcus↳ M. Meulensteen
43'
J. Assehnoun
46'
J. Dirksen← J. Veldmate
59'
Kacper Kozłowski
59'
Davy Pröpper
68'
Matúš Bero
68'
Maximilian Wittek
70'
N. Isimat-Mirin← B. Białek
70'
T. Domgjoni← D. Pröpper
76'
Mike te Wierik
77'
O. Romeny← J. Assehnoun
77'
J. Vlak← L. Bernadou
77'
M. Sankoh← M. Manhoef
77'
G. Vidović← K. Kozłowski
83'
M. Dijks← M. Wittek
87'
D. OrozOwn goal

Possession

59%Emmen

Shots

6Emmen

Pass accuracy

51%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenVitesse
Overview
59%Possession41%
6Total Shots13
6Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots13
3On Target7
3Off Target5
0Blocked1
3Inside Box8
3Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
577Total Passes399
463Accurate Passes303
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards4

Emmen 2 – 2 Vitesse

Emmen and Vitesse drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on February 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Manhoef (33'), C. Arcus (38'), J. Assehnoun (43'), D. Oroz (87' o.g.).

Emmen controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.