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Vitesse vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
B. Huisman 59', 36'
2/10/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 25GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vitesse56%
×Draw21%
Emmen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
2.04
Emmen
1.23

Vitesse creates 66% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.97
Emmen
1.43

allows per match

Vitesse
1.02
Emmen
2.11

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less
Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
77%
Vitesse or Emmen
79%
Draw or Emmen
44%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
33%
Emmen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
87%
Vitesse 2+ goals
60%
Vitesse 3+ goals
33%
Emmen 1+ goals
71%
Emmen 2+ goals
35%
Emmen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
71%
Emmen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Emmen attack 1.43 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vitesse scores more
56%
level
21%
Emmen scores more
23%

Vitesse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
B. HuismanVitesseVitesse · F
8.6

Match Events

36'
B. Huisman↳ I. Yegoian
52'
Torben Rhein
59'
B. Huisman↳ I. Yegoian
60'
A. Tsingaras← A. Zarrouk
62'
F. Quispel← F. Evina
63'
Y. Eduardo← K. Nsona
63'
A. Sadiku← J. Kade
79'
R. Schouten← D. Nunumete
83'
S. van Duivenbooden← J. Koller
84'
M. Kreekels← A. Büttner
85'
Gyan de Regt
88'
D. Hoogewerf← G. de Regt
88'
A. Visser← B. Huisman

Possession

50%Vitesse

Shots

19Vitesse

Pass accuracy

52%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseEmmen
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots9
3Corners5
12Fouls17
Shots
19Total Shots9
5On Target4
9Off Target1
5Blocked4
10Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
358Total Passes369
278Accurate Passes271
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 2–0 Emmen

Vitesse beat Emmen 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 10, 2025.

Goals: B. Huisman (36', 59').

Vitesse controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.