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Vitesse vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
E. Huth 23'
R. Niemeijer 86'
B. Boersma 25'
12/4/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vitesse51%
×Draw22%
De Graafschap28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
2.01
De Graafschap
1.44

Vitesse creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.78
De Graafschap
1.88

allows per match

Vitesse
0.99
De Graafschap
2.24

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less
De Graafschap-0.18scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
72%
Vitesse or De Graafschap
78%
Draw or De Graafschap
49%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
29%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
87%
Vitesse 2+ goals
59%
Vitesse 3+ goals
32%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
76%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
42%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
65%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + De Graafschap defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

De Graafschap attack 1.88 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vitesse scores more
51%
level
22%
De Graafschap scores more
28%

Vitesse at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55
M. SteffenVitesseVitesse · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
E. Huth↳ M. Steffen
25'
B. Boersma↳ A. van der Heide
46'
J. Pinto← N. Zonneveld
46'
N. Bannis← E. Huth
52'
Jason Meerstadt
61'
J. Simons← A. van der Heide
61'
F. de Jong← O. Raterink
71'
Reuven Niemeijer
82'
X. Thenu← D. Hoogewerf
83'
L. Schoppema← K. Symons
83'
D. Theodoridis← I. El Kadiri
86'
R. Niemeijer
87'
Bouke Boersma
88'
Y. Ranon← M. Marschalk
89'
T. Kok← R. Niemeijer

Possession

44%Vitesse

Shots

15Vitesse

Pass accuracy

47%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseDe
Overview
44%Possession56%
15Total Shots21
8Corners9
8Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots21
3On Target8
8Off Target8
4Blocked5
8Inside Box16
7Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
311Total Passes409
231Accurate Passes335
74%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls18
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 1–2 De Graafschap

De Graafschap beat Vitesse 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Huth (23'), B. Boersma (25'), R. Niemeijer (86').

De Graafschap controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 15.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.