Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

De Graafschap vs Vitesse — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vitesse
Vitesse
R. Seuntjens 75' (pen)
D. Warmerdam 67'
L. Schoppema 36'
I. Yegoian 63'
9/29/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

De Graafschap57%
×Draw20%
Vitesse23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.26
Vitesse
1.40

De Graafschap creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.44
Vitesse
1.51

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.28
Vitesse
2.09

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less
Vitesse+0.49scores more

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
77%
De Graafschap or Vitesse
80%
Draw or Vitesse
43%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
35%
Vitesse wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
89%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
66%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
39%
Vitesse 1+ goals
75%
Vitesse 2+ goals
41%
Vitesse 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
71%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + Vitesse defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.26

Vitesse attack 1.51 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

De Graafschap scores more
57%
level
20%
Vitesse scores more
23%

De Graafschap at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. SchoppemaDe GraafschapDe Graafschap · D
8.2

Match Events

36'
L. Schoppema↳ J. van de Haar
46'
D. Hoogewerf← A. Visser
46'
T. Macheras← G. de Regt
49'
Alexander Büttner
53'
D. Warmerdam← P. Brittijn
55'
Alexander Büttner
55'
Alexander Büttner
58'
M. Steffen← A. Tsingaras
63'
I. Yegoian↳ M. Jonathans
66'
R. Seuntjens← A. van der Heide
66'
M. Mahi← T. van Gilst
67'
D. Warmerdam
73'
Enzo Cornelisse
75'
Marcus Steffen
75'
R. SeuntjensPenalty
76'
Y. Eduardo← J. van de Haar
76'
M. Willemsen← J. Hardeman
78'
Rowan Besselink
80'
M. Egbring← R. van der Plaat

Possession

55%De

Shots

17De

Pass accuracy

51%De

Statistics

DeVitesse
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots8
6Corners2
13Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots8
11On Target3
3Off Target3
3Blocked2
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
414Total Passes337
330Accurate Passes263
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: De Graafschap 3–1 Vitesse

De Graafschap beat Vitesse 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 29, 2024.

Goals: L. Schoppema (36'), I. Yegoian (63'), D. Warmerdam (67'), R. Seuntjens (75' pen).

De Graafschap controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.