Vitesse 2–0 De Graafschap: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

De Graafschap

J. Koller 90+3'

T. Macheras 45'

2/16/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 26GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vitesse51%

×Draw22%

De Graafschap28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchDe Graafschap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.44

Vitesse

2.01

De Graafschap

1.44

Vitesse creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.78

creates per match

1.88

0.99

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Vitesse

1.78

De Graafschap

1.88

allows per match

Vitesse

0.99

De Graafschap

2.24

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less

De Graafschap-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

De Graafschap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

72%

Vitesse or De Graafschap

78%

Draw or De Graafschap

49%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

29%

De Graafschap wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

87%

Vitesse 2+ goals

59%

Vitesse 3+ goals

32%

De Graafschap 1+ goals

76%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

42%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

65%

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + De Graafschap defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

De Graafschap attack 1.88 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vitesse scores more

51%

level

22%

De Graafschap scores more

28%

Vitesse at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Egbring

Vitesse · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

Anass Najah

8'

Marcus Steffen

45'

T. Macheras↳ A. Büttner

52'

Reuven Niemeijer

58'

A. Tsingaras← D. Hoogewerf

58'

D. Warmerdam← I. El Kadiri

58'

R. Seuntjens← A. van der Heide

58'

T. van Gilst← A. Najah

67'

E. Cornelisse← A. Zarrouk

69'

L. Schoppema← K. Symons

76'

J. Cooper-Love← R. Niemeijer

77'

A. Visser← B. Huisman

77'

M. Kreekels← T. Macheras

88'

Tristan van Gilst

90+3'

J. Koller↳ A. Visser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseDe

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots14

3Corners4

7Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target3

6Off Target6

2Blocked5

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

361Total Passes426

252Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3