Vissel Kobe 5–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Vissel Kobe

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Johor Darul Takzim FC

K. Ogawa 72', 58', 13'

Douglas 65'

K. Furuhashi 28'

Safawi Rasid 27' (pen)

2/12/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vissel Kobe62%

×Draw20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.99

Vissel Kobe

2.09

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.99

Vissel Kobe creates 111% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

2.22

creates per match

1.08

0.89

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

83%

Vissel Kobe or Johor Darul Takzim FC

80%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

38%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

39%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

88%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

62%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

34%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

63%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

26%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

79%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.09

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

62%

level

20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

17%

Vissel Kobe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

K. Ogawa

Vissel Kobe · M

9.2

Match Events

13'

K. Ogawa↳ Iniesta

15'

Kunanlan Subramaniam

27'

Safawi RasidPenalty

28'

K. Furuhashi↳ D. Nishi

31'

45'

45'

58'

61'

Adam Nor Azlin← S. Kunanlan

65'

Natxo Insa← Nazmi Faiz Mansor

65'

Douglas

72'

N. Fujimoto← Douglas

72'

K. Ogawa↳ Iniesta

76'

J. Tanaka← K. Furuhashi

81'

Syafiq Ahmad← Gonzalo Cabrera

88'

R. Hatsuse← Iniesta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselJohor

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots8

3Corners3

18Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots8

10On Target3

7Off Target1

4Blocked4

12Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

601Total Passes405

532Accurate Passes320

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1