Johor Darul Takzim FC 1–0 Vissel Kobe

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vissel Kobe

Marcos Guilherme 73'

2/17/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 8Sultan Ibrahim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC37%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.29

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.30

Vissel Kobe

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.54

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.46

Vissel Kobe

1.54

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.04

Vissel Kobe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

63%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

63%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

16%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

73%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

37%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

14%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

72%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

37%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

50%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

37%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

37%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

58

A. Zubiaurre

Johor Darul Takzim FC · G

8.3

Match Events

6'

Kaito Yamada

41'

NenéGoal cancelled

60'

K. Hamasaki← K. Yamauchi

60'

R. Komatsu← N. Tominaga

63'

K. Nagato← Caetano

68'

Eddy İsrafilov

70'

Jairo← Bergson

70'

Yago Cesar← J. Figueiredo

73'

Marcos Guilherme↳ Jairo

76'

A. Fazail← N. Insa

76'

T. Yamakawa← T. Iwanami

76'

N. Iino← K. Yamada

84'

J. Irazabal← R. Parra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JohorVissel

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots12

1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.96

6Corners7

14Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

302Total Passes432

218Accurate Passes360

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.04Goals Prevented-0.04

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1