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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Vissel Kobe — AFC Champions League 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
CANC
13:00
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
12/1/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC37%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.30
Vissel Kobe
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.46
Vissel Kobe
1.54

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.04
Vissel Kobe
1.15

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
63%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
63%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
16%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
73%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
37%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
14%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
72%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
37%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
50%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
37%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Johor Darul Takzim FC host Vissel Kobe

December 1, 2020: Johor Darul Takzim FC take on Vissel Kobe in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Johor Darul Takzim FC host Vissel Kobe at Khalifa International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.