Vissel Kobe 1–3 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Cerezo Osaka

T. Miyashiro 45'

Rafael Ratao 90'

M. Shibayama 83'

S. Uejo 45'

5/6/2025

J1 League · Round 15Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Vissel Kobe50%

×Draw24%

Cerezo Osaka26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Vissel Kobe

1.71

Cerezo Osaka

1.15

Vissel Kobe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

1.61

creates per match

1.47

0.82

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.61

Cerezo Osaka

1.47

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.82

Cerezo Osaka

1.81

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.09on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

74%

Vissel Kobe or Cerezo Osaka

76%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

50%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

27%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

82%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

51%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

24%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

68%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

32%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

66%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 30 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.47 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

50%

level

24%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

26%

Vissel Kobe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Hirose

Vissel Kobe · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

Kakeru Funaki

45'

T. Miyashiro↳ R. Hirose

45'

S. Uejo↳ H. Kida

56'

Hayato Okuda

58'

L. Fernandes← K. Furuyama

58'

M. Nakajima← S. Uejo

62'

Jean Patric← K. Yuruki

71'

N. Iino← Erik

71'

K. Hamasaki← D. Sasaki

75'

M. Shibayama← H. Okuda

79'

Y. Honda← Caetano

79'

Y. Osako← T. Miyashiro

83'

M. Shibayama↳ Rafael Ratao

88'

R. Nishio← S. Kagawa

89'

Koki Fukui

90+6'

Rafael Ratão

90'

Rafael Ratao↳ L. Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselCerezo

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots11

1.21Expected Goals (xG)1.05

6Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots11

4On Target5

8Off Target4

4Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

511Total Passes512

427Accurate Passes432

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0