Vissel Kobe 0–0 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cerezo Osaka

4/29/2026

J1 League · Round 13Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Vissel Kobe52%

×Draw23%

Cerezo Osaka25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.22

Vissel Kobe

1.87

Cerezo Osaka

1.22

Vissel Kobe creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.61

creates per match

1.65

0.79

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.61

Cerezo Osaka

1.65

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.79

Cerezo Osaka

2.12

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe-0.22scores less

Cerezo Osaka+0.06on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

75%

Vissel Kobe or Cerezo Osaka

77%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

48%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

30%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

85%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

56%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

29%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

70%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

34%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

68%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 18 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.12 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.65 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

52%

level

23%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

25%

Vissel Kobe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Hirose

Vissel Kobe · D

8.2

Match Events

46'

Y. Goke← M. Mitsuta

49'

Yumeki Yokoyama

53'

S. Hatanaka← R. Osako

53'

M. Nakajima← S. Uejo

69'

M. Shibayama← Y. Yokoyama

69'

H. Okuda← T. Nakamura

70'

Jean Patric← D. Sasaki

77'

Yosuke Ideguchi

83'

M. Hidaka← Y. Ideguchi

83'

K. Hamasaki← Y. Muto

85'

S. Tanaka← H. Kida

90+4'

Mitsuki Hidaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselCerezo

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots9

1.52Expected Goals (xG)1.32

5Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

586Total Passes342

496Accurate Passes257

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

8Offsides0