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Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
R. Hirose 11'
Matheus Thuler 2'
Léo Ceará 51'
9/13/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Vissel Kobe50%
×Draw24%
Cerezo Osaka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.71
Cerezo Osaka
1.15

Vissel Kobe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.61
Cerezo Osaka
1.47

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.82
Cerezo Osaka
1.81

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.09on par
Cerezo Osaka+0.01on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
74%
Vissel Kobe or Cerezo Osaka
76%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
50%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
27%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
82%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
51%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
24%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
68%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
32%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
66%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 30 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.47 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
50%
level
24%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
26%

Vissel Kobe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
R. HiroseVissel KobeVissel Kobe · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
Matheus Thuler
11'
R. Hirose↳ Y. Osako
41'
Takahiro Ogihara
46'
Capixaba← H. Tameda
46'
S. Kitano← Vitor Bueno
46'
H. Okuda← K. Funaki
51'
Léo Ceará↳ Lucas Fernandes
67'
D. Sasaki← H. Ide
67'
Y. Kuwasaki← R. Hirose
77'
H. Kida← H. Okuno
83'
R. Yamasaki← Léo Ceará
84'
N. Iino← T. Miyashiro
90+1'
Y. Honda← R. Hatsuse

Possession

54%Vissel

Shots

10Vissel

Pass accuracy

51%Vissel

Statistics

VisselCerezo
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots13
1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.77
3Corners6
13Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots13
5On Target1
4Off Target3
1Blocked9
7Inside Box5
3Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
452Total Passes381
367Accurate Passes293
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka

Vissel Kobe beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on September 13, 2024.

Goals: Matheus Thuler (2'), R. Hirose (11'), Léo Ceará (51').

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.