Virtus Entella 0–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Virtus Entella

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

G. Artistico 88'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella42%

×Draw24%

Spezia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.48

Virtus Entella

1.67

Spezia

1.48

Virtus Entella creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.44

creates per match

1.71

1.26

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.44

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.26

Spezia

1.90

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

66%

Virtus Entella or Spezia

76%

Draw or Spezia

58%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

22%

Spezia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

81%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

50%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

23%

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

43%

Spezia 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

55%

Spezia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spezia attack 1.71 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

42%

level

24%

Spezia scores more

34%

Virtus Entella at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Mascardi

Spezia · G

7.7

Match Events

5'

Luca Parodi

16'

Pietro Beruatto

20'

Bernat GuiuGoal cancelled

25'

Bernat Guiu

52'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

58'

Luca Parodi

58'

Luca Parodi

60'

F. Mezzoni← B. Guiu

68'

Fellipe Jack← G. Aurelio

68'

D. Verde← R. Kouda

74'

D. Ankeye← A. Debenedetti

74'

A. Boccadamo← D. Bariti

82'

G. Lapadula← V. Vlahovic

85'

Francesco Cassata

88'

G. Artistico↳ D. Verde

89'

Gabriele Artistico

90+6'

Francesco Mezzoni

90+1'

T. Fumagalli← N. Karic

90'

F. Russo← M. Dalla Vecchia

90+2'

A. Nagy← F. Cassata

90+2'

L. Vignali← A. Candela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusSpezia

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots14

0.77Expected Goals (xG)3.29

5Corners6

19Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots14

3On Target3

3Off Target6

0Blocked5

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

317Total Passes338

233Accurate Passes242

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Spezia

Spezia beat Virtus Entella 1-0 in Serie B on December 8, 2025.

Goals: G. Artistico (88').

Spezia controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.

Virtus Entella vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Spezia