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Spezia vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
G. Artistico 18'
L. Cuppone 30'
2/7/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Spezia50%
×Draw26%
Virtus Entella25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.55
Virtus Entella
1.01

Spezia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.63
Virtus Entella
0.84

allows per match

Spezia
1.18
Virtus Entella
1.48

finishing

Spezia+0.57scores more
Virtus Entella-0.40scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
75%
Spezia or Virtus Entella
74%
Draw or Virtus Entella
50%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
26%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
79%
Spezia 2+ goals
46%
Spezia 3+ goals
20%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
64%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
27%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
67%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.48 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.63 + Virtus Entella defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Virtus Entella attack 0.84 + Spezia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spezia scores more
50%
level
26%
Virtus Entella scores more
25%

Spezia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

60
A. RomanoSpeziaSpezia · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
Ivan Marconi
3'
Mattia ValotiPenalty cancelled
18'
G. Artistico↳ M. Valoti
24'
Francesco Cassata
24'
Niccolo Squizzato
30'
L. Cuppone↳ B. Guiu
33'
Bernat Guiu
49'
C. Comotto← F. Cassata
50'
E. Adamo← M. Ruggero
60'
Pietro Beruatto
63'
L. Skjellerup← G. Di Serio
67'
M. Dalla Vecchia← N. Squizzato
73'
M. Tirelli← L. Cuppone
78'
Marco Dalla Vecchia
90+5'
Leonardo SernicolaPenalty cancelled
90'
T. Del Lungo← F. Mezzoni
90'
R. Turicchia← S. Di Mario
90+1'
M. Nichetti← A. Franzoni

Possession

62%Spezia

Shots

11Spezia

Pass accuracy

56%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaVirtus
Overview
62%Possession38%
11Total Shots11
0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.31
6Corners6
14Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target3
5Off Target5
2Blocked3
5Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
430Total Passes262
367Accurate Passes176
85%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.11Goals Prevented0.11
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Serie B: Spezia 1–1 Virtus Entella

Spezia and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 7, 2026.

Goals: G. Artistico (18'), L. Cuppone (30').

Spezia controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.