Spezia 0–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

7/27/2020

Serie B · Round 37Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia47%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.01

Spezia

1.44

Virtus Entella

1.01

Spezia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.51

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Virtus Entella

0.86

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Virtus Entella

1.38

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Virtus Entella-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

74%

Spezia or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

53%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

23%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

42%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

64%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

27%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

64%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Virtus Entella defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Virtus Entella attack 0.86 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spezia scores more

47%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

26%

Spezia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff