Virtus Entella 1–1 Pescara: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pescara

A. Tiritiello 90'

A. Di Nardo 73'

10/25/2025

Serie B · Round 9Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Virtus Entella49%

×Draw24%

Pescara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.14

Virtus Entella

1.65

Pescara

1.14

Virtus Entella creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.49

creates per match

1.18

1.09

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.49

Pescara

1.18

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.09

Pescara

1.81

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Virtus Entella-0.05on par

Pescara-0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

74%

Virtus Entella or Pescara

76%

Draw or Pescara

51%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

26%

Pescara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

81%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

49%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

23%

Pescara 1+ goals

68%

Pescara 2+ goals

32%

Pescara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

65%

Pescara (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.81 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.49 + Pescara defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pescara attack 1.18 + Virtus Entella defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

49%

level

24%

Pescara scores more

26%

Virtus Entella at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Tiritiello

Virtus Entella · D

8.9

Match Events

25'

Ivan Marconi

46'

Luca Parodi

67'

D. Bariti← F. Mezzoni

68'

F. Russo← A. Debenedetti

71'

F. Caligara← L. Meazzi

73'

A. Di Nardo↳ M. Dagasso

80'

M. Dalla Vecchia← M. Nichetti

80'

D. Ankeye← T. Fumagalli

84'

O. Okwonkwo← A. Di Nardo

84'

L. Graziani← L. Valzania

84'

A. Gravillon← G. Letizia

85'

A. Boccadamo← L. Parodi

90+2'

Fabrizio Caligara

90+1'

D. Giannini← T. Corazza

90'

A. Tiritiello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusPescara

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots11

11Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots11

3On Target3

11Off Target5

6Blocked3

15Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

419Total Passes416

349Accurate Passes345

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Serie B: Virtus Entella 1–1 Pescara

Virtus Entella and Pescara drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Di Nardo (73'), A. Tiritiello (90').

Virtus Entella controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.

Virtus Entella vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Virtus Entella 1–1 Pescara