Pescara 3–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Pescara

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Virtus Entella

L. Insigne 56'

F. Caligara 43'

A. Cagnano 20'

3/18/2026

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Pescara39%

×Draw26%

Virtus Entella35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.29

Pescara

1.39

Virtus Entella

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

0.84

1.74

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Pescara

1.36

Virtus Entella

0.84

allows per match

Pescara

1.74

Virtus Entella

1.41

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara+0.14scores more

Virtus Entella-0.44scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

65%

Pescara or Virtus Entella

74%

Draw or Virtus Entella

61%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

18%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

75%

Pescara 2+ goals

40%

Pescara 3+ goals

16%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

72%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

37%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

53%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 10 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.36 + Virtus Entella defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Virtus Entella attack 0.84 + Pescara defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pescara scores more

39%

level

26%

Virtus Entella scores more

35%

Pescara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Insigne

Pescara · M

9.2

Match Events

20'

A. Cagnano↳ L. Insigne

27'

Gaetano Letizia

40'

O. Siaulys← S. Colombi

43'

F. Caligara↳ L. Insigne

56'

L. Insigne↳ F. Caligara

60'

A. Gravillon← G. Letizia

64'

G. Olzer← F. Caligara

64'

L. Berardi← G. Brugman

64'

A. Boccadamo← S. Di Mario

64'

N. Karic← A. Franzoni

65'

F. Russo← A. Di Nardo

69'

L. Cuppone← M. Tirelli

69'

N. Squizzato← M. Nichetti

70'

J. Brandes← G. Acampora

84'

Marco Dalla Vecchia

90+3'

Niccolo Squizzato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraVirtus

Overview

58%Possession42%

6Total Shots11

0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.90

2Corners1

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots11

3On Target4

2Off Target5

1Blocked2

2Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

478Total Passes336

392Accurate Passes260

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-2.44Goals Prevented-2.44

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3