Pescara 1–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Pescara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Virtus Entella

N. Rigoni 90'

A. Schenetti 29'

4/27/2021

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Pescara46%

×Draw25%

Virtus Entella29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.22

Pescara

1.60

Virtus Entella

1.22

Pescara creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

0.91

1.52

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Pescara

1.65

Virtus Entella

0.91

allows per match

Pescara

1.52

Virtus Entella

1.56

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.22scores less

Virtus Entella-0.48scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

71%

Pescara or Virtus Entella

75%

Draw or Virtus Entella

54%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

80%

Pescara 2+ goals

47%

Pescara 3+ goals

22%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

70%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

34%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

61%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 7 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.65 + Virtus Entella defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Virtus Entella attack 0.91 + Pescara defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pescara scores more

46%

level

25%

Virtus Entella scores more

29%

Pescara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Pepín

Pescara · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

A. Schenetti↳ G. Cleur

43'

Markus Pavić

56'

M. Brunori← G. De Luca

64'

C. Galano← D. Vokić

65'

S. Andreis← A. Settembrini

69'

Leonardo Morosini

71'

Simone Andreis

76'

F. Bonini← L. Morosini

76'

A. Marcucci← V. Dragomir

76'

F. De Col← G. Cleur

80'

M. Valdifiori← D. Dessena

82'

Mirko Valdifiori

84'

M. Nzita← E. Masciangelo

84'

N. Giannetti← C. Capone

90'

Matteo Brunori

90'

Michele Pellizzer

90'

N. Rigoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraVirtus

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots9

7Corners3

12Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots9

8On Target2

4Off Target5

8Blocked2

17Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

519Total Passes319

445Accurate Passes239

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides2

Serie B: Pescara 1–1 Virtus Entella

Pescara and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 27, 2021.

Goals: A. Schenetti (29'), N. Rigoni (90').

Pescara controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.

Pescara vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Pescara 1–1 Virtus Entella