Virtus Entella 2–3 Frosinone: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Frosinone

A. Schenetti 50'

M. Curado 35' (OG)

P. Iemmello 76'

L. Ariaudo 27'

R. Maiello 17'

2/14/2021

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Virtus Entella47%

×Draw23%

Frosinone30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.43

Virtus Entella

1.82

Frosinone

1.43

Virtus Entella creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

1.80

1.05

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.65

Frosinone

1.80

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.05

Frosinone

1.99

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella-0.45scores less

Frosinone+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

70%

Virtus Entella or Frosinone

77%

Draw or Frosinone

53%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

25%

Frosinone wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

84%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

54%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

27%

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

61%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.99 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.65 + Frosinone defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.82

Frosinone attack 1.80 + Virtus Entella defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

47%

level

23%

Frosinone scores more

30%

Virtus Entella at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Maiello

Frosinone · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

R. Maiello

25'

Marco Chiosa

27'

L. Ariaudo↳ P. Szymiński

35'

M. CuradoOwn goal

40'

47'

50'

55'

56'

58'

61'

61'

70'

V. Dragomir← A. Settembrini

70'

G. De Luca← A. Capello

76'

P. Iemmello↳ A. Novakovich

80'

L. Morosini← A. Schenetti

80'

Alejandro Rodriguez← M. Brunori

90'

Francesco Zampano

90'

N. Brighenti← M. Curado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusFrosinone

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots10

5Corners3

15Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

427Total Passes357

337Accurate Passes258

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Frosinone

Frosinone beat Virtus Entella 3-2 in Serie B on February 14, 2021.

Goals: R. Maiello (17'), L. Ariaudo (27'), M. Curado (35' o.g.), A. Schenetti (50'), P. Iemmello (76').

Virtus Entella controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Chiavari in Chiavari.

Virtus Entella vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Frosinone