Frosinone 1–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Frosinone

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

F. Dionisi 57'

2/1/2020

Serie B · Round 22Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Frosinone48%

×Draw25%

Virtus Entella27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Frosinone

1.54

Virtus Entella

1.09

Frosinone creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.77

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Frosinone

1.77

Virtus Entella

0.91

allows per match

Frosinone

1.27

Virtus Entella

1.31

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.53scores more

Virtus Entella-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

73%

Frosinone or Virtus Entella

75%

Draw or Virtus Entella

52%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

79%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

66%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

30%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

64%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.27 · 10 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.77 + Virtus Entella defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Virtus Entella attack 0.91 + Frosinone defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frosinone scores more

48%

level

25%

Virtus Entella scores more

27%

Frosinone at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

L. Ariaudo

Frosinone · D

7.3

Match Events

12'

Mauro Coppolaro

38'

Andrea Settembrini

39'

M. Mancosu← M. De Luca

45+7'

L. Krajnc← M. Capuano

54'

M. Toscano← A. Settembrini

57'

F. Dionisi

58'

M. Gori← M. Rohdén

75'

M. Chajia← M. Currarino

77'

Andrea Beghetto

78'

Marco Chiosa

87'

S. D'Elia← A. Beghetto

90'

Luka Krajnc

90'

Moutir Chajia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneVirtus

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots4

7Corners4

11Fouls25

Shots

10Total Shots4

1On Target0

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

5Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

442Total Passes404

341Accurate Passes313

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Discipline

11Fouls25

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2