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Frosinone vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
I. Koutsoupias 80'
M. Zilli 77'
G. Bracaglia 58'
A. Raimondo 36'
10/28/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Frosinone54%
×Draw23%
Virtus Entella22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.77
Virtus Entella
1.04

Frosinone creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.90
Virtus Entella
0.87

allows per match

Frosinone
1.21
Virtus Entella
1.64

finishing

Frosinone+0.55scores more
Virtus Entella-0.37scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
78%
Frosinone or Virtus Entella
77%
Draw or Virtus Entella
46%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
30%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
83%
Frosinone 2+ goals
53%
Frosinone 3+ goals
26%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
65%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
28%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
71%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.21 · 11 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.90 + Virtus Entella defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

Virtus Entella attack 0.87 + Frosinone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Frosinone scores more
54%
level
23%
Virtus Entella scores more
22%

Frosinone at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
I. KoutsoupiasFrosinoneFrosinone · M
8.3

Match Events

36'
A. Raimondo
58'
G. Bracaglia
63'
T. Fumagalli← N. Karic
63'
F. Russo← A. Debenedetti
64'
A. Boccadamo← D. Bariti
65'
M. Cichella← B. L. Kone
67'
Matteo Cichella
73'
M. Zilli← A. Raimondo
74'
A. Benali← D. Ankeye
74'
M. Dalla Vecchia← A. Franzoni
77'
M. Zilli
80'
I. Koutsoupias↳ A. Oyono
83'
G. Cittadini← F. Ghedjemis
83'
E. Masciangelo← G. Calo
83'
A. Ndow← G. Bracaglia

Possession

49%Frosinone

Shots

21Frosinone

Pass accuracy

50%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinoneVirtus
Overview
49%Possession51%
21Total Shots11
3.27Expected Goals (xG)0.68
10Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
21Total Shots11
9On Target1
8Off Target8
4Blocked2
12Inside Box7
9Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
357Total Passes377
293Accurate Passes305
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
5Offsides0

Serie B: Frosinone 4–0 Virtus Entella

Frosinone beat Virtus Entella 4-0 in Serie B on October 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Raimondo (36'), G. Bracaglia (58'), M. Zilli (77'), I. Koutsoupias (80').

Virtus Entella controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.