Virtus Entella 1–0 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Empoli

A. Tiritiello 86'

11/1/2025

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Virtus Entella36%

×Draw27%

Empoli36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Virtus Entella

1.25

Empoli

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

1.12

creates per match

1.27

1.22

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.12

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.22

Empoli

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

64%

Virtus Entella or Empoli

73%

Draw or Empoli

64%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

16%

Empoli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

71%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

36%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

13%

Empoli 1+ goals

71%

Empoli 2+ goals

36%

Empoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

50%

Empoli (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.12 + Empoli defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Empoli attack 1.27 + Virtus Entella defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

36%

level

27%

Empoli scores more

36%

Virtus Entella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

T. Fumagalli

Virtus Entella · F

8.2

Match Events

59'

Andrea Tiritiello

60'

B. Popov← R. Ilie

60'

S. Shpendi← P. Pellegri

63'

A. Debenedetti← F. Russo

64'

N. Karic← A. Benali

66'

Luca Belardinelli

69'

D. Degli Innocenti← L. Belardinelli

70'

L. Ignacchiti← A. Ghion

83'

M. Nichetti← D. Bariti

85'

Duccio Degli Innocenti

86'

A. Tiritiello↳ T. Fumagalli

89'

F. Bianchi← G. Yepes

90+4'

Stefano Di Mario

90+4'

D. Portanova← M. Dalla Vecchia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusEmpoli

Overview

53%Possession47%

21Total Shots5

11Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots5

6On Target2

7Off Target1

8Blocked2

14Inside Box1

7Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

376Total Passes348

289Accurate Passes277

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2