Empoli 1–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Virtus Entella

N. Casale 37'

3/20/2021

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli55%

×Draw25%

Virtus Entella20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.86

Empoli

1.60

Virtus Entella

0.86

Empoli creates 86% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 59 away

1.60

creates per match

0.76

0.96

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Empoli

1.60

Virtus Entella

0.76

allows per match

Empoli

0.96

Virtus Entella

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

80%

Empoli or Virtus Entella

75%

Draw or Virtus Entella

45%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

29%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

80%

Empoli 2+ goals

47%

Empoli 3+ goals

22%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

58%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

21%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

73%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.60 + Virtus Entella defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Virtus Entella attack 0.76 + Empoli defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Empoli scores more

55%

level

25%

Virtus Entella scores more

20%

Empoli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

D. Borra

Virtus Entella · G

8.5

Match Events

36'

Ilias Koutsoupias

37'

N. Casale

40'

D. Mazzocco← I. Koutsoupias

59'

Markus Pavić

68'

S. Moreo← A. La Mantia

69'

S. Żurkowski← G. Crociata

73'

M. Brescianini← A. Paolucci

73'

F. De Col← M. Coppolaro

73'

G. De Luca← A. Capello

77'

Ryder Matos← N. Bajrami

85'

S. Damiani← L. Štulac

85'

M. Olivieri← L. Mancuso

86'

M. Mancosu← D. Mazzocco

90'

Ryder Matos Santos Pinto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliVirtus

Overview

52%Possession48%

26Total Shots5

13Corners1

15Fouls17

Shots

26Total Shots5

8On Target1

10Off Target3

8Blocked1

17Inside Box2

9Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

415Total Passes403

330Accurate Passes306

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Empoli vs Virtus Entella

Empoli beat Virtus Entella 1-0 in Serie B on March 20, 2021.

Goals: N. Casale (37').

Empoli controlled possession (52%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.

Empoli vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Empoli vs Virtus Entella