Virtus Entella 2–0 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Virtus Entella

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Empoli

M. De Luca 40'

C. Morra 38'

12/14/2019

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Virtus Entella36%

×Draw27%

Empoli36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

Virtus Entella

1.23

Empoli

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

1.12

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.12

Empoli

1.25

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.22

Empoli

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

64%

Virtus Entella or Empoli

73%

Draw or Empoli

64%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

16%

Empoli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

71%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

35%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

13%

Empoli 1+ goals

71%

Empoli 2+ goals

35%

Empoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

50%

Empoli (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.12 + Empoli defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Empoli attack 1.25 + Virtus Entella defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

36%

level

27%

Empoli scores more

36%

Virtus Entella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. De Luca

Virtus Entella · F

8.0

Match Events

34'

Frédéric Veseli

38'

C. Morra

40'

M. De Luca

54'

I. De Santis← M. Coppolaro

55'

S. Ricci← L. Štulac

61'

K. Laribi← J. Dezi

65'

M. Currarino← M. Toscano

69'

Andrea Schenetti

70'

Jure Balkovec

78'

F. Ardizzone← A. Settembrini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusEmpoli

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots12

6Corners3

17Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots12

6On Target3

2Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

351Total Passes468

258Accurate Passes383

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides7