Vindbjart 1–0 Sandnes Ulf II: Result & Stats

Vindbjart

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sandnes Ulf II

4/22/2025

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 3Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vindbjart82%

×Draw11%

Sandnes Ulf II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VindbjartExpected goals in this matchSandnes Ulf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.65

1.11

Vindbjart

3.65

Sandnes Ulf II

1.11

Vindbjart creates 229% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

3.92

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Vindbjart

3.92

Sandnes Ulf II

0.92

allows per match

Vindbjart

1.31

Sandnes Ulf II

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw

92%

Vindbjart or Sandnes Ulf II

89%

Draw or Sandnes Ulf II

18%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+

65%

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals

97%

Vindbjart 2+ goals

87%

Vindbjart 3+ goals

68%

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

67%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

30%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)

91%

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 3.92, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 3.92 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.65

Sandnes Ulf II attack 0.92 + Vindbjart defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Vindbjart scores more

82%

level

11%

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

8%

Vindbjart at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff