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Sandnes Ulf II vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
G. R. Horpestad 81'
M. Fofana 61'
F. J. Engedal 45'
8/24/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 17Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II24%
×Draw19%
Vindbjart57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
1.58
Vindbjart
2.46

Vindbjart creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.54
Vindbjart
1.77

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
3.15
Vindbjart
1.62

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
43%
Sandnes Ulf II or Vindbjart
81%
Draw or Vindbjart
76%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
11%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
79%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
47%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
21%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
91%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
70%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
30%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.54 + Vindbjart defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vindbjart attack 1.77 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
24%
level
19%
Vindbjart scores more
57%

Vindbjart at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
F. J. Engedal
61'
M. Fofana
81'
G. R. Horpestad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes Ulf II vs Vindbjart

Vindbjart beat Sandnes Ulf II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 24, 2025.

Goals: F. J. Engedal (45'), M. Fofana (61'), G. R. Horpestad (81').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.