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Vindbjart vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vindbjart
Vindbjart
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
E. Duesund 47'
M. Fofana 37'
O. H. Johnsen 34'
6/15/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 11Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vindbjart73%
×Draw15%
Sandnes Ulf II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vindbjart
2.77
Sandnes Ulf II
1.04

Vindbjart creates 166% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vindbjart
2.00
Sandnes Ulf II
1.00

allows per match

Vindbjart
1.08
Sandnes Ulf II
3.54

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw
88%
Vindbjart or Sandnes Ulf II
85%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
27%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+
52%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals
94%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
76%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
51%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
65%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
28%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)
86%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 2.00 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.77

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Vindbjart defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Vindbjart scores more
73%
level
15%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
12%

Vindbjart at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
O. H. Johnsen
37'
M. Fofana
47'
E. Duesund

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Vindbjart 2–1 Sandnes Ulf II

Vindbjart beat Sandnes Ulf II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: O. H. Johnsen (34'), M. Fofana (37'), E. Duesund (47').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla in Vennesla.