Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villarreal II vs Eldense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eldense
Eldense
3/4/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio de la Ceramica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II49%
×Draw27%
Eldense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.41
Eldense
0.90

Villarreal II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Eldense
0.95

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Eldense
1.03

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
76%
Villarreal II or Eldense
73%
Draw or Eldense
51%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
24%
Eldense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
76%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
41%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
17%
Eldense 1+ goals
59%
Eldense 2+ goals
23%
Eldense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
67%
Eldense (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

Eldense attack 0.95 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villarreal II scores more
49%
level
27%
Eldense scores more
24%

Villarreal II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 2–0 Eldense

Villarreal II beat Eldense 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio de la Ceramica in Villarreal.