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Eldense vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Eldense
Eldense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
9/6/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Eldense49%
×Draw26%
Villarreal II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.47
Villarreal II
0.96

Eldense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.87
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Eldense
0.74
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
75%
Eldense or Villarreal II
74%
Draw or Villarreal II
51%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
24%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
77%
Eldense 2+ goals
43%
Eldense 3+ goals
18%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
62%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
25%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
66%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.87 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Eldense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eldense scores more
49%
level
26%
Villarreal II scores more
25%

Eldense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Eldense 1–0 Villarreal II

Eldense beat Villarreal II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.