Eldense 2–0 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal II

3/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense45%

×Draw27%

Villarreal II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Eldense

1.42

Villarreal II

1.07

Eldense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

1.19

creates per match

0.81

1.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Eldense

1.19

Villarreal II

0.81

allows per match

Eldense

1.33

Villarreal II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

72%

Eldense or Villarreal II

73%

Draw or Villarreal II

55%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

22%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

76%

Eldense 2+ goals

41%

Eldense 3+ goals

17%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

66%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

29%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

61%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eldense scores more

45%

level

27%

Villarreal II scores more

28%

Eldense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff