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Villa San Carlos vs Barracas Central — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
7/17/2015Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 25Estadio Genancio Sálice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Villa San Carlos35%
×Draw30%
Barracas Central34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa San Carlos
1.04
Barracas Central
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 22 away

creates per match

Villa San Carlos
1.31
Barracas Central
1.00

allows per match

Villa San Carlos
1.04
Barracas Central
0.77

finishing

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa San Carlos ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa San Carlos or draw
66%
Villa San Carlos or Barracas Central
70%
Draw or Barracas Central
65%

Winning margin

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
14%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
65%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
28%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
9%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
64%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
27%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
51%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa San Carlos attack 1.31 + Barracas Central defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.04

Barracas Central attack 1.00 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Villa San Carlos scores more
35%
level
30%
Barracas Central scores more
34%

Villa San Carlos at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Villa San Carlos 1–1 Barracas Central

Villa San Carlos and Barracas Central drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 17, 2015.

The match was played at Estadio Genancio Sálice in Berisso, Provincia de Buenos Aires.