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Barracas Central vs Villa San Carlos — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Barracas Central
Barracas Central
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
6/13/2017Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 35Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Barracas Central65%
×Draw22%
Villa San Carlos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barracas Central
1.79
Villa San Carlos
0.63

Barracas Central creates 184% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 128 away

creates per match

Barracas Central
2.29
Villa San Carlos
0.82

allows per match

Barracas Central
0.43
Villa San Carlos
1.30

finishing

Barracas Central+0.00on par
Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Villa San Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw
87%
Barracas Central or Villa San Carlos
78%
Draw or Villa San Carlos
35%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+
38%
Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals
83%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
53%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
26%
Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
47%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
13%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)
84%
Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.43 · 21 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 2.29 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Villa San Carlos attack 0.82 + Barracas Central defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barracas Central scores more
65%
level
22%
Villa San Carlos scores more
13%

Barracas Central at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Barracas Central 3–1 Villa San Carlos

Barracas Central beat Villa San Carlos 3-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on June 13, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.