Barracas Central 3–1 Villa San Carlos

Barracas Central

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Villa San Carlos

2/10/2018

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 21Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Barracas Central65%

×Draw22%

Villa San Carlos13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barracas CentralExpected goals in this matchVilla San Carlos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.63

Barracas Central

1.79

Villa San Carlos

0.63

Barracas Central creates 184% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 128 away

2.29

creates per match

0.82

0.43

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Barracas Central

2.29

Villa San Carlos

0.82

allows per match

Barracas Central

0.43

Villa San Carlos

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barracas Central+0.00on par

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Villa San Carlos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw

87%

Barracas Central or Villa San Carlos

78%

Draw or Villa San Carlos

35%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+

38%

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals

83%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

53%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

26%

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals

47%

Villa San Carlos 2+ goals

13%

Villa San Carlos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

84%

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.43 · 21 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 2.29 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Villa San Carlos attack 0.82 + Barracas Central defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barracas Central scores more

65%

level

22%

Villa San Carlos scores more

13%

Barracas Central at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff