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Villa Mitre vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
3/18/2017Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Villa Mitre56%
×Draw27%
Defensores de Belgrano VR18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.47
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.69

Villa Mitre creates 113% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 116 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.59
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.90

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.48
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.34

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
82%
Villa Mitre or Defensores de Belgrano VR
73%
Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR
44%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
29%
Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
18%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
50%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
15%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
76%
Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.48 · 120 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.59 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Villa Mitre defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
56%
level
27%
Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
18%

Villa Mitre at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Villa Mitre and Defensores de Belgrano VR drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 18, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.