Defensores de Belgrano VR 3–1 Villa Mitre

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Villa Mitre

M. Machado 67'

R. Seratto 54'

B. Aranda 6'

E. Cérica 23'

10/14/2024

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundEstadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR38%

×Draw32%

Villa Mitre29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchVilla Mitre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.01

Villa Mitre

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 115 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.13

Villa Mitre

0.80

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Villa Mitre

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Villa Mitre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

71%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Villa Mitre

68%

Draw or Villa Mitre

62%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

15%

Villa Mitre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

64%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

27%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

8%

Villa Mitre 1+ goals

57%

Villa Mitre 2+ goals

21%

Villa Mitre 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

57%

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

38%

level

32%

Villa Mitre scores more

29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

B. Aranda

23'

E. Cérica

46'

J. Peñaloza← E. Cérica

54'

60'

67'

70'

70'

F. Pettineroli← G. Obredor

71'

S. Olano← R. Seratto

80'

J. Bassani← L. Pérez

80'

L. Monzón← M. Machado

85'

N. Bustos← L. Núñez

85'

I. Valsangiácomo← F. Ciampichetti

87'

T. Pérez← E. González

Defensores

Villa

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Machado

Manager: J. Iturrería

71'▲S. Olano←▼R. Seratto

80'▲J. Bassani←▼L. Pérez

80'▲L. Monzón←▼M. Machado

85'▲N. Bustos←▼L. Núñez

85'▲I. Valsangiácomo←▼F. Ciampichetti

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

OlanoBassaniMonzónBustosValsangiácomo

Manager: C. Mungo

46'▲J. Peñaloza←▼E. Cérica

60'▲J. Vivani←▼G. Jara

70'▲N. Ihitz←▼E. Ávila

70'▲F. Pettineroli←▼G. Obredor

87'▲T. Pérez←▼E. González

Villa Mitre substitutes

PeñalozaVivaniIhitzPettineroliPérez

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 3–1 Villa Mitre

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat Villa Mitre 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 14, 2024.

Goals: B. Aranda (6'), E. Cérica (23'), R. Seratto (54'), M. Machado (67').

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín in Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 3–1 Villa Mitre