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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
J. González 74'
F. Olego 22'
M. López 7'
2/10/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR38%
×Draw32%
Villa Mitre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.01
Villa Mitre
0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 115 away

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.13
Villa Mitre
0.80

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.88
Villa Mitre
0.90

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par
Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Villa Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw
71%
Defensores de Belgrano VR or Villa Mitre
68%
Draw or Villa Mitre
62%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
15%
Villa Mitre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
64%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
27%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
8%
Villa Mitre 1+ goals
57%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
21%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
57%
Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
38%
level
32%
Villa Mitre scores more
29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. López
22'
F. Olego
74'
J. González

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2 – 1 Villa Mitre

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat Villa Mitre 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on February 10, 2019.

Goals: M. López (7'), F. Olego (22'), J. González (74').

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires).