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Vilafranquense vs Moreirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Moreirense
Moreirense
1/29/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilafranquense29%
×Draw26%
Moreirense46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.14
Moreirense
1.52

Moreirense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Moreirense
1.65

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Moreirense
1.00

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
54%
Vilafranquense or Moreirense
74%
Draw or Moreirense
71%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
11%
Moreirense wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
68%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
32%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
11%
Moreirense 1+ goals
78%
Moreirense 2+ goals
45%
Moreirense 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
38%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Moreirense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Moreirense attack 1.65 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
29%
level
26%
Moreirense scores more
46%

Moreirense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilafranquense vs Moreirense

Moreirense beat Vilafranquense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.