Moreirense 3–0 Vilafranquense: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vilafranquense

10/14/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Moreirense40%

×Draw22%

Vilafranquense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchVilafranquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.73

Moreirense

1.79

Vilafranquense

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.86

1.60

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Moreirense

2.00

Vilafranquense

1.86

allows per match

Moreirense

1.60

Vilafranquense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Vilafranquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

62%

Moreirense or Vilafranquense

78%

Draw or Vilafranquense

60%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

21%

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

83%

Moreirense 2+ goals

53%

Moreirense 3+ goals

26%

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

82%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

52%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

52%

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 2.00 + Vilafranquense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vilafranquense attack 1.86 + Moreirense defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moreirense scores more

40%

level

22%

Vilafranquense scores more

38%

Moreirense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff