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Moreirense vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Moreirense
Moreirense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
8/7/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 1Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Moreirense61%
×Draw20%
Vilafranquense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreirense
2.19
Vilafranquense
1.13

Moreirense creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Moreirense
2.88
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Moreirense
1.24
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw
81%
Moreirense or Vilafranquense
80%
Draw or Vilafranquense
39%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+
38%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals
89%
Moreirense 2+ goals
64%
Moreirense 3+ goals
37%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
68%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
31%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)
76%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 2.88 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.19

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Moreirense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Moreirense scores more
61%
level
20%
Vilafranquense scores more
19%

Moreirense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreirense vs Vilafranquense

Moreirense beat Vilafranquense 1-0 in Segunda Liga on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.