Vilafranca 1–2 Olot: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Olot

Ale Frutos 47'

Marc Mas 90+3'

Roger Barnils 76'

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vilafranca28%

×Draw29%

Olot43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.25

Vilafranca

0.96

Olot

1.25

Olot creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

1.52

0.99

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Olot →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

57%

Vilafranca or Olot

71%

Draw or Olot

72%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

10%

Olot wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

62%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

25%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Olot 1+ goals

71%

Olot 2+ goals

36%

Olot 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

40%

Olot (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Olot attack 1.52 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilafranca scores more

28%

level

29%

Olot scores more

43%

Olot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Gerard Ramón← Sergi Cadena

29'

David Toro← Xavier Pluvins

47'

Ale Frutos

58'

Urri← Guillem Terma

58'

Moha Chabboura← Marc Roquet

58'

Albert Blázquez← Marco Gil

70'

Pablo Ufano← Arnau Forés

70'

Uri González← Jordi Manzano

76'

Roger Barnils

79'

Marti de Castro← Eric Vía

79'

Arnau Cañas← Jordi Aumatell

90+3'

Marc Mas

Vilafranca

Olot

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carles Moya

19'▲Gerard Ramón←▼Sergi Cadena

29'▲David Toro←▼Xavier Pluvins

79'▲Marti de Castro←▼Eric Vía

79'▲Arnau Cañas←▼Jordi Aumatell

Vilafranca substitutes

RamónToroCastroCañas

Manager: Pedro Dólera

58'▲Urri←▼Guillem Terma

58'▲Moha Chabboura←▼Marc Roquet

58'▲Albert Blázquez←▼Marco Gil

70'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Arnau Forés

70'▲Uri González←▼Jordi Manzano

Olot substitutes

UrriChabbouraBlázquezUfanoGonzález

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Olot

Olot beat Vilafranca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Ale Frutos (47'), Roger Barnils (76'), Marc Mas (90+3').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Olot