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Olot vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot53%
×Draw24%
Vilafranca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.68
Vilafranca
0.99

Olot creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olot or draw
78%
Olot or Vilafranca
76%
Draw or Vilafranca
47%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
29%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
81%
Olot 2+ goals
50%
Olot 3+ goals
24%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
63%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
26%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
71%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olot scores more
53%
level
24%
Vilafranca scores more
22%

Olot at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 5–1 Vilafranca

Olot beat Vilafranca 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix in Olot.