Olot 3–2 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Olot

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vilafranca

Marc Mas 57', 39'

Bruno Perone 54'

Ale Frutos 59'

Arnau Cañas 37'

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot53%

×Draw24%

Vilafranca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.99

Olot

1.68

Vilafranca

0.99

Olot creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

1.76

creates per match

1.12

0.85

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Vilafranca →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olot or draw

78%

Olot or Vilafranca

76%

Draw or Vilafranca

47%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

29%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

81%

Olot 2+ goals

50%

Olot 3+ goals

24%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

63%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

26%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

71%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olot scores more

53%

level

24%

Vilafranca scores more

22%

Olot at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

39'

54'

57'

59'

64'

Pablo Ufano← Albert Blázquez

64'

Marco Gil← Moha Chabboura

68'

Sergi Cadena← David Toro

72'

Marc Roquet← Jordi Manzano

72'

Pau Juvanteny← Guillem Terma

76'

Pedro Bilbao← Isaac Olmo

76'

Xavier Pluvins← Yeray

81'

David Bigas← Urri

83'

Marti de Castro← Eric Ruiz

83'

Jordi Aumatell← Arnau Cañas

Olot

Vilafranca

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Pedro Dólera

64'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Albert Blázquez

64'▲Marco Gil←▼Moha Chabboura

72'▲Marc Roquet←▼Jordi Manzano

72'▲Pau Juvanteny←▼Guillem Terma

81'▲David Bigas←▼Urri

Olot substitutes

UfanoGilRoquetJuvantenyBigas

Manager: Triguero

68'▲Sergi Cadena←▼David Toro

76'▲Pedro Bilbao←▼Isaac Olmo

76'▲Xavier Pluvins←▼Yeray

83'▲Marti de Castro←▼Eric Ruiz

83'▲Jordi Aumatell←▼Arnau Cañas

Vilafranca substitutes

CadenaBilbaoPluvinsCastroAumatell

Match Recap: Olot vs Vilafranca

Olot beat Vilafranca 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Arnau Cañas (37'), Marc Mas (39', 57'), Bruno Perone (54'), Ale Frutos (59').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.

Olot vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olot vs Vilafranca