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Viktoria Žižkov vs Ústí nad Labem — FNL 2019

Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
9/28/2025FNLFNL · Round 11Stadium Viktoria Zizkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov46%
×Draw24%
Ústí nad Labem30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Žižkov
1.65
Ústí nad Labem
1.29

Viktoria Žižkov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 58 away

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.53
Ústí nad Labem
1.19

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.39
Ústí nad Labem
1.76

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par
Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

Ústí nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw
70%
Viktoria Žižkov or Ústí nad Labem
76%
Draw or Ústí nad Labem
54%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
24%
Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
49%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
23%
Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
72%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
37%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
60%
Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.53 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.19 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more
46%
level
24%
Ústí nad Labem scores more
30%

Viktoria Žižkov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Žižkov vs Ústí nad Labem

Viktoria Žižkov and Ústí nad Labem drew 1-1 in FNL on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Viktoria Zizkov in Prague.